An insecure and anxious government always displays characteristics of becoming authoritarian, even in a democracy. When its power is being challenged and its fallacies being brought to light, such a government can be defensive and can adopt tactics to gag every discourse that goes against it.
Such attributes are now being displayed by the UPA-led Indian government which is adopting hypocritical stances after coming under attack from different quarters. One recent decision in this regard has been its support to ban the opinion polls. It is pertinent here to mention that it was this same government, who, in the year 2005, had supported the opinion polls in the Supreme Court.
It has been a long-held view of the Election Commission (EC) that opinion polls are neither scientific nor credible and could be misused. The EC has proposed that opinion polls be banned from the day the Commission announces poll dates till the final phase of polling. Opinion polls are in any case meaningless after elections have been held.
Political parties, on the other hand, worry about opinion polls’ influence on voters. Of late, however, opinion polls have become a handy, perhaps overused, tool in the hands of the media organisations to gauge the mood of the electorate. While opinion polls are a view of a small crosssection of the electorate, credible media organizations are known to stay clear of dubious pollsters. Under this circumstance, political parties favouring a ban on opinion polls are clearly undermining the fundamental right of speech and expression under Article 19(1)(a) of the Constitution — specifically, the media’s right to disseminate information and the voter’s right to know.
That the UPA is insecure and also worried about the influence the opinion polls can have on the voters when they actually go to vote, can be gauged from the current opinion polls’ estimates. In all four major poll-bound states of Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, opinion polls show the Congress losing badly. While the Congress puts on a brave face by questioning these surveys, the surveys also seem to fear them. Ironically, the BJP is against the opinion polls at present despite the fact that in 2004, the Congress and BJP were on the same side in demanding ban on opinion polls after the notification of the then election dates. Modi has now simply said the Congress is scared of him and thus seeking to ban opinion polls.
But in the general elections held soon after 2004, surveys rooted for the BJP-led NDA while voters cast their lot with the Congressled UPA. A year later, in October 2005, the UPA government opposed the EC’s plea to ban opinion/exit polls in the Supreme Court.
The government even argued that these polls help voters make a “balanced conclusion” and an “informed electoral choice” by comparing different surveys just as they would compare editorials and news articles. This reflects on two things: first, the belief of the political parties that opinion polls are influenced by the business interests and political affiliations of the media houses and can impact the voters’ decision is devoid of facts. Secondly, the political parties are never really sure about their own opinions on an issue and dilly-dally according to the circumstances they find themselves in, in turn making one wonder if they can be relied on.
Its attack on the media is also unwarranted. In 2008, when the Centre banned exit polls, political parties and many media organisations agreed that exit polls had an adverse influence since the election process was underway. Similarly, the media hardly protested against the ban on releasing opinion polls, 48 hours before polling.
One can look at history to realize that by nature such a demand is draconian. In the year 1977, afraid of losing power at the Centre, Indira Gandhi had clamped Emergency in a country that fought for democracy for more than a century. One of the first steps under Emergency was to gag the media, arrest journalists and stop publications outright after the media came out openly against Gandhi. Opinions are the pillars of democracy; they keep it vibrant and prevent it from becoming stale. Theyalso ensure the elected leaders do not forget the responsibility they have been given under the lust for power.
Some understandings can be drawn from the whole debate. It is a fact that a ban on opinion polls serves no purpose other than to deny voters information on the voting choices others make based on issues like price rise, corruption and jobs. In hindsight, they can just be seen as an indicator of what the nation is thinking. For a ruling government, it can be a marker of areas where it is failing its people and to work on them. A ban will thus not be in the spirit of the democracy. Opinion polls, in fact, demand more powerful and passionate opinions that can even draw unwilling voters to polling booths.
The larger responsibility is that of the media: they must publish datasets down to the lowest level of granularity, to facilitate independent scrutiny of the sampling and its diversity. Such an approach firms up transparency and credibility. However, there is no easy answer on what sample sizes fits best a country of over one billion. But sample size, methods, procedures, questions of polls, etc. can be debated and a better methodology of opinion polls can be thought of. And this may demand of the media organizations to sit back and think of approaching opinion polls from a fairer perspective.
A last word is also due on the EC. Before it takes a final decision on opinion polls, the EC must realise that the views of political parties, alone, do not constitute genuine public opinion and that these keep changing along with their fortunes.
Feedback: abatra@exchange4media.com
