Most print players are up in arms against the latest findings of the Indian Readership Survey (IRS), which has thrown up some notso-pleasant surprises. Simran Sabherwal attempts to find out what exactly has gone wrong, and whether the stake-holders can reach a consensus soon
January 28, 2014 was a long-awaited day for the Indian Print industry, with the new Indian Readership Survey (IRS) set to be unveiled. However, the results surprised most publishers, with a majority of publications seeing a sharp drop in their readership numbers. While some publications questioned the veracity of the numbers almost immediately, a few which saw a jump in numbers tom-tommed the fact in their publications the next day, only to make a quick U-turn a day later, probably after examining the data and trends finely. In fact, Dainik Jagran, the top publication as per IRS, said in its Kanpur edition dated January 30, 2014: “Once again No. 1, but Jagran disapproves survey”. Subsequently, the Indian Newspaper Society (INS) issued an advisory to all its members to withdraw subscription from the IRS, researched by Nielsen India and brought out under the aegis of the Media Research Users Council (MRUC) and Readership Studies Council of India (RSCI). INS also asked IRS to immediately stop using the mastheads of all its member publications for the purpose of the survey. The Association of Indian Magazines (AIM) too joined the bandwagon, urging MRUC to immediately withdraw the IRS 2013 findings. The MRUC replied through a statement, saying that it is only one of the two constituents of the RSCI and could not unilaterally determine the way forward. Here, we try to decipher what about IRS particularly upset publishers, and whether there is a solution in sight.
‘BRING BACK HANSA RESEARCH GROUP’
WAS AC NIELSEN THE RIGHT CHOICE?
A little background check into the history of readership surveys in India shows that Hansa Research Group Pvt. Ltd (HRG) handled the IRS, commissioned by the MRUC, from 2003 to 2013, when AC Nielsen bagged the mandate. AC Nielsen won after a nine-month long selection process for a continuous readership study, backed by new revamped methodology of conducting research. Interestingly, Nielsen conducted the National Readership Survey (NRS), commissioned by the National Readership Studies Council (NRSC), which was discontinued in 2006 allegedly due to suspected anomalies in readership findings. Some veteran media professionals question whether the decision to award the mandate to Nielsen, whose earlier effort did not yield results, was the right one, given Nielsen’s lack of experience in the Indian Print media context.
Coming to the sample size for the latest IRS, about 2,35,000 households, spread across both urban (nearly 1,60,000 households) and rural (nearly 75,000) were considered, as against the earlier IRS, which had a sample size of more than 2,50,000 households. However, the latest survey has added more geographies, i.e., the States of Sikkim, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. Critics point out that with a smaller sample size/recording units and more markets, the sample size has been reduced for every reporting unit and this could have played a role in the current data. Sources also add that the entire research conducted by HRG over the decade was ignored and this should not have been done, especially since the initial IRS survey, conducted in 2000, took three years to come out with their first set of data.
WHAT ARE THE RADICAL CHANGES?
Media planners are of the opinion that with any drastic, radical change in research methodology, as in the newly revamped IRS which has different process and technology, variance in data is expected and time should be given for a pattern to emerge. Any new reporting methodology with alternate metrics and base numbers is bound to have shifts from the old; patterns emerging over time, even in the shortterm. But experts also say that Print data does not change so rapidly and this is what has got the publishers up in arms.
The other important change, the inclusion of the international practice Data Fusion, could also be a cause for variance according to experts. Data Fusion is an international process which integrates multiple data and knowledge representing the same real-world object into a consistent, accurate, and useful representation. DS-CAPI (Dual-Screen Computer Assisted Personal Interview) was used as a new way of capturing data for the IRS and this method eliminated the need for printed masthead booklets and instead used a second device (dual screen) to display mastheads and other stimulus to the respondent. This also reduced the interview time from 90 minutes to 30 minutes and the fatigue level of both the interviewer and interviewee, thereby improving the efficiency of data collection.
Anita Nayyar, CEO Havas Media Group, India & South Asia says, “The features aim to make the survey progressive. However there were questions like for readership usage, is the question of ‘last one month’ the best? Quantity issues like newer urban outgrowths in the main city boundary and how this might affect a niche publication… There certainly is an issue of low sample size which is resulting in strange results. This quantitative and qualitative testing should make for a richer and more accurate study, using experience, technology and analysis.”
The other notable change in the IRS was that readership for publications is no longer reported by editions. Sources say, research done during the earlier IRS showed that circulation growth may not necessarily result in readership growth (with the advent of nuclear families); this meant that circulation did not necessarily capture readership, so publishers were asked to provide audited circulation and the concept called readers-per-copy was created for each edition. Over a period of time, this helped publishers track which editions were dipping and which were doing well, allowing them to increase their circulation and forming another layer of validation. Criticism from various media houses could have been avoided if an independent audit of the data, (especially since we have a new process and a new agency in place and the data is coming out after a long gap), was done before its release.
Mohit Jain, Chairman, Newspaper Committee, INS says, “The execution in the latest IRS survey was improper and the field work was inaccurate too. There is no validation of the latest findings.” Anant Nath, Director, Delhi Press, believes that the problem with most of the publishers is that they are not happy with MRUC’s methodology, transparency, and the authenticity of data collection. He also suggested that the publishers lack clarity on the questionnaire process that MRUC carried out with respondents.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
While, all eyes will be on the next set of numbers put out by IRS, the anomalies which have been reported need to be looked into and clarified immediately, especially since these numbers do not corroborate with ABC circulation figures. A strongly worded piece in the Hindu said, “Circulation figures for newspapers are compiled independently by the Audit Bureau of Circulation. The readership survey is supposed to capture the demographic details. But, the latest IRS has absurd figures and defies all logic and reason.” The Editor-in-Chief of The Hindu also pointed out: “It is a statistical improbability that a copy of The Hindu has a readership of 0.1 in Madurai and 0.6 in Coimbatore. The lack of credibility of IRS 2013 data is evident from the finding that Business Line, a sister publication of The Hindu, has nil readers in Chennai and Mumbai where the circulation is 20,520 and 21,716 copies respectively.” Sources have indicated that MRUC has asked Nielsen to clarify the queries from various publications.
While there may have been many voices asking for the withdrawal of the IRS survey, consensus is that another long period without any trading currency should be avoided. While some believe that having no currency is better than having an incorrect currency, doing away with IRS is not seen to be a viable option and most players are looking to improve IRS for better results. The answer is thus not an alternative to IRS, but strengthening it.
Sandeep Sharma, President, RKSwamy Media Group, says, “The bigger question is that when a measurement currency is in use and accepted by the industry and becomes a benchmark for all to do business in a scientific manner then why stop it completely before having a new viable option in place? Agreed, a new version 2.0 with a new constituent handling it, use of technology etc, is not under question, the issue is why stop the earlier study completely, start afresh and then realize that the findings are not in line with earlier research.”
The issues raised by publishers about the nature of anomalies in IRS are not simple statistical nuances, but pertain to faulty methodology, wrong sampling decisions or in many cases, quite possibly a mix of input errors and genuine software glitches and it is critical that these issues are addressed quickly on an individual basis, for the IRS not to lose credibility. For the moment the RSCI Chairman has called for a meeting on February 19, 2014 where all aspects of the study will be placed before the RSCI for helping the broader community of stakeholders convince themselves about the study’s robustness and integrity. Ashish Bhasin, Chairman and CEO, South Asia, Dentsu Aegis Network, says, “The faster publishers, clients and agencies get together to find a solution to the current imbroglio, the better it is for the industry. I don’t think research should be scrapped, but I think all the errors must be addressed before we move onwards; otherwise lesser and lesser people will have faith in the research moving forward.”
AND MORE ANOMALIES... WHERE HAVE THE READERS GONE
The latest IRS has seen tremendous change in the way all print publications have performed. Some of the key indicators include:
• The overall market is shown to be behaving in asynchronous manner with sudden spurts of growth in some markets, juxtaposed with sharp decline in others, leading to serious concerns on the veracity of base-lining and the sanctity of readership survey process execution on the ground.
• There is arbitrary decline of aggregate readership ascribed to certain media groups in a targeted manner. Almost 90-95 per cent of Indian newspapers are negatively affected.
• Sources from the print industry shared the data, which shows how particular publications lost their Average Issue Readership (AIR) in a drastic way in some states.
• In Uttar Pradesh, a leading Hindi Daily, which has been consistently in the third position for several quarters, added 70 lakh readers, that’s a gain of close to 50 per cent while a daily that occupied No 4 position, with steady growth, lost around one lakh readers.
• In Uttarakhand, major print players saw decline in readership of as much as 40 per cent in the last one year
• All the three leading dailies in Jharkhand have see a fall in readership as compared to the last IRS
• The The No. 1 daily in Gujarat was dethroned by the No. 3, losing more that 7 lakh readers
• The leading Marathi daily seeing a loss of around 15 lakh readers, while the No. 2 player has also seen a 17 per cent decline in Maharashtra
• In Karnataka, all leading Kannada dailies have dropped significantly by as much as 40-50 per cent.
• In Tamil Nadu, the most read English daily has lost almost half of its reader base, while a leading Tamil daily has lost as much as over 14 lakh readers.
• The Andhra Pradesh market has seen overall degrowth in newspaper readership across languages, with as much as 30-65 per cent decline.
• Punjab lost one-third of all its readers in just a year, neighbouring Haryana has grown by 17 per cent
• Hitavada, the leading English newspaper of Nagpur with a certified circulation of over 60,000, doesn’t appear to have a single reader now
• Hindu Business Line has thrice as many readers in Manipur as in Chennai
• Mumbai showed a 20.3 per cent growth in overall English readership, while Delhi (a faster-growing city overall on all macro indices) shows a drop of 19.5 per cent
WHAT IS IRS?
The IRS is the largest continuous readership research study in the world with an annual sample size of 2.35 lakh respondents. Apart from Print, IRS extensively captures TV, Radio, DTH, Telecom, Cinema and Internet data. Apart from Media, IRS provides subscribers information on product linkages at both Category level and Brand level.
TAKING A STRONG STAND
In a strongly worded joint statement, 18 leading newspaper groups came together to condemn the IRS survey which is “riddled with shocking anomalies”. These 18 publishers are: The Times of India, DainikJagran, DainikBhaskar, India Today, AnandabazarPatrika, Lokmat, Outlook, Daily News and Analysis (DNA), Sakshi, The Hindu, Amar Ujala, The Tribune, BartamanPatrika, AajSamaj, The Statesman, Mid Day, NaiDuniya, and Dinakaran
AIM JOINS THE CHORUS
The Association of Indian Magazines (AIM) has also pointed several anomalies in the latest IRS 2013 findings and urged MRUC to immediately withdraw the IRS 2013 findings as it believes that such faulty reporting of readership numbers can have “extremely damaging impact on business”, apart from misleading media planners and advertisers.
• AIM stated that 144 magazines have not been reported individually and have been clubbed as ‘other magazines’, of which 61 are in English and 24 in Hindi
• Business Today, has a variance of -34 per cent, dropping to 2.64 lakh readers from 4.03 lakh.
• Reader’s Digest readership degrew from 9.68 lakh to 3.62 lakh
• While India Today has grown to 15.2 lakh from 14.80 lakh, the growth spurt in three states defies logic: Bihar – from 73,000 to 2 lakh; Kerala – from 71,000 to 2.68 lakh; Uttar Pradesh – from 1.6 lakh to 2.13 lakh
• Outlook’s readership in Bihar grew three times, but it has no readership in Hyderabad
• The Sportstar saw growth of 94 per cent – going up to 5.43 lakh from 2.8 lakh
• Time magazine has seen a whopping 145 per cent growth – going up to 2.05 lakh from 83,000
• Hindi magazine MeriSaheli has lost 51 per cent of its readers in this round of IRS.
‘IT’S LIKE COMPARING CHALK AND CHEESE’
Why the new IRS can’t and should not be compared with the old one, according to Paritosh Joshi, Chairman, IRS Technical Committee
All numbers in IRS are statistical estimates. Estimates always operate within an interval. This is the best of all readership studies as all non-sampling irregularities have been eliminated to get the most robust data. The RFP attracted some of the best global researchers that ensured advance technology enabler with latest methodology for greater accuracy. Audience measurement data make most sense when seen in a time series. This is just the first point, and patterns will only begin to emerge once the first round of 2014 is published about a quarter hence. Using historic data to do any projections or extrapolations is contrary to our sincerest professional advice and RSCI/MRUC disclaim all responsibility for decisions made or conclusions derived by such methods. Hence no real comparison should be made with the old data on account of superior methodology, advanced technology and greater statistical accuracy.
“I suggest MRUC take higher tests and talk to publishers about the core issues and come up with a better survey which has transparency.” ANANT NATH, Director, Delhi Press
“The mistake that IRS 2013 did was not referring to ABC. It has audited results published every six months after rigorous checks and measures. It is absolutely beyond understanding why this was not done. This is the only way in which MRUC can realize if there are huge anomalies, so that they can cross check the data, and if required revisit the areas. There is a huge volatility in the data and it does not reflect market realities. Some of the findings defy even common sense and logic. It shows the amateurish way of conducting a survey and we cannot accept their findings.” VARGHESE CHANDY, Chief General Manager, Marketing & Advertising Sales, Malayala Manorama
“DNA contests data presented by MRUC, there’s a clear mismatch between survey figures and our database. DNA has a robust subscription base and we have names, contact numbers, and addresses of most of our readers, who have opted for a paid subscription scheme. This also shows our loyal reader database, which is extremely stable; we would, therefore, like to know the basis of the readings.” DNA, MUMBAI, in its January 29, 2014 edition
Feedback: simran.sabherwal@exchange4media.com
